Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 26-November 1?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$27.0K
-$643.51
95.4¢ → 85.5¢
-10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $20.3K | $19.0K | -$550.62 | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 92.6¢ | $5.6K | $5.2K | +$61.41 | 49% 195-206 (401) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$3 | 72% 225-86 (311) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $672.14 | $498.53 | -$173.61 | 40% 392-579 (971) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 88.6¢ | $212.65 | $205 | -$7.65 | 59% 263-180 (443) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $5.3K | $189.83 | +$23.95 | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
Invested
$20,333.61
Value
$19.0K
PnL
-$550.62
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$5,559
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$61.41
Record
49%
195-206 (401)
Invested
$1,883
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$3
Record
72%
225-86 (311)
Invested
$672.14
Value
$498.53
PnL
-$173.61
Record
40%
392-579 (971)
PippiTraderInvested
$212.65
Value
$205
PnL
-$7.65
Record
59%
263-180 (443)
Invested
$5,253.13
Value
$189.83
PnL
+$23.95
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.