Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 November 9-15?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 57¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$12.4K
$1.9K
46.9¢ → 57.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $5.2K | $7.5K | +$2.3K | — 2-1 (3) |
GE getbippedCTR | Noavg 56.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | +$48.09 | 47% 15-17 (32) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 51.6¢ | $7.4K | $1.2K | -$453.51 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
TO TokorCTR | Noavg 60¢ | $931.84 | $880.79 | -$20.2 | 50% 88-89 (177) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Noavg 64.2¢ | $321 | $297.5 | -$23.5 | 55% 367-301 (668) |
 PippiTrader | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $111.71 | $102.01 | +$20.37 | 37% 14-24 (38) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $98.78 | $19.36 | -$3.32 | 47% 738-817 (1555) |
Invested
$5,155.48
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$2,660.55
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$48.09
Record
47%
15-17 (32)
Invested
$7,426.71
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$453.51
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
Invested
$931.84
Value
$880.79
PnL
-$20.2
Record
50%
88-89 (177)
Invested
$321
Value
$297.5
PnL
-$23.5
Record
55%
367-301 (668)
PippiTraderInvested
$111.71
Value
$102.01
PnL
+$20.37
Record
37%
14-24 (38)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$98.78
Value
$19.36
PnL
-$3.32
Record
47%
738-817 (1555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.