Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 November 2-8?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 94¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 9

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 94.3¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,961

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$612.48

Total Shares14,495

Combined PnL-$66.92

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 93.4¢	$10.9K	$7.9K	$-1.4K	65% 3039-1616 (4655)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 94.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$54.51	77% 306-89 (395)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 97.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$33.92	90% 5015-573 (5588)
GE getbippedCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$198.41	$231.1	+$32.69	50% 256-253 (509)
TI timetowanderCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$233.48	$168.35	-$65.13	38% 412-675 (1087)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$111.01	$105.2	-$7.08	46% 509-587 (1096)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$98.07	$64.61	+$7.94	39% 319-489 (808)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$78.56	$43.23	-$35.34	62% 860-533 (1393)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 94¢	$155.84	$42.94	+$2.1	48% 10286-10955 (21241)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$10,859.15

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

65%

3039-1616 (4655)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$2,884.48

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$54.51

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,370.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$33.92

Record

90%

5015-573 (5588)

getbippedCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.41

Value

$231.1

PnL

+$32.69

Record

50%

256-253 (509)

timetowanderCTR

Yes

Invested

$233.48

Value

$168.35

PnL

-$65.13

Record

38%

412-675 (1087)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.01

Value

$105.2

PnL

-$7.08

Record

46%

509-587 (1096)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.07

Value

$64.61

PnL

+$7.94

Record

39%

319-489 (808)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.56

Value

$43.23

PnL

-$35.34

Record

62%

860-533 (1393)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$155.84

Value

$42.94

PnL

+$2.1

Record

48%

10286-10955 (21241)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.