Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $15K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$15.2K
$-1.0K
61.5¢ → 58.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 61.3¢ | $11.6K | $11.3K | -$720.26 | 50% 220-218 (438) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$85 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 61.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$78.8 | 62% 819-512 (1331) |
EN En11006 | Noavg 63¢ | $1.0K | $959.96 | -$87.99 | 57% 31-23 (54) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $508.87 | $454.83 | -$27.27 | 55% 804-666 (1470) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 61.4¢ | $15.35 | $13.84 | -$0.73 | 48% 9426-10320 (19746) |
Invested
$11,575.05
Value
$11.3K
PnL
-$720.26
Record
50%
220-218 (438)
Invested
$1,258
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$85
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
Invested
$1,211.55
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$78.8
Record
62%
819-512 (1331)
Invested
$1,007.96
Value
$959.96
PnL
-$87.99
Record
57%
31-23 (54)
Invested
$508.87
Value
$454.83
PnL
-$27.27
Record
55%
804-666 (1470)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$15.35
Value
$13.84
PnL
-$0.73
Record
48%
9426-10320 (19746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.