Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 October 26-November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$9.2K
-$34.87
98.4¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $7.7K | $7.2K | +$106.36 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$29.49 | 76% 279-86 (365) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $126.1 | $6.34 | -$119.76 | 62% 794-490 (1284) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $52.64 | $1.68 | -$50.96 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
Invested
$7,726.25
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$106.36
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$1,965.51
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$29.49
Record
76%
279-86 (365)
Invested
$126.1
Value
$6.34
PnL
-$119.76
Record
62%
794-490 (1284)
Invested
$52.64
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$50.96
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.