Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 November 9-15?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.3K
-$9.39
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$5.41 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $61.13 | $61.13 | +$0 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $29.83 | $27 | -$2.83 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $14.35 | $13.2 | -$1.15 | — 2-1 (3) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $0.6 | +$0 | 38% 26-42 (68) |
Invested
$1,218.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$5.41
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$61.13
Value
$61.13
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$27
PnL
-$2.83
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$14.35
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$1.15
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
26-42 (68)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.