Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 November 2-8?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$157.7

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 99.7¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares14,388

Combined PnL+$301.36

Yes3 traders

Total Value$38.69

Total Shares11,053

Combined PnL-$143.66

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.7¢	$6.4K	$6.6K	+$126.04	65% 3106-1654 (4760)
GE getbipped	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$92.02	50% 260-255 (515)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$62.52	77% 306-89 (395)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 97.8¢	$490	$488.29	+$9.07	90% 5045-574 (5619)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 97¢	$442	$440.45	+$11.71	46% 520-601 (1121)
TI timetowanderCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$181.44	$38.54	-$142.9	38% 416-680 (1096)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.9	$0.13	-$0.77	62% 880-543 (1423)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	49% 10705-11356 (22061)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$6,446.53

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$126.04

Record

65%

3106-1654 (4760)

getbipped

Invested

$4,788.77

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$92.02

Record

50%

260-255 (515)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,934.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$62.52

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

nonkenny90

Invested

$490

Value

$488.29

PnL

+$9.07

Record

90%

5045-574 (5619)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$442

Value

$440.45

PnL

+$11.71

Record

46%

520-601 (1121)

timetowanderCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.44

Value

$38.54

PnL

-$142.9

Record

38%

416-680 (1096)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.77

Record

62%

880-543 (1423)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

10705-11356 (22061)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.