Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 November 9-15?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 94¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$42.91

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 94.3¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,889

Combined PnL-$105.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$568.2

Total Shares7,576

Combined PnL+$148.84

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 93.4¢	$11.3K	$6.3K	-$16.64	65% 87-46 (133)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 96.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$89.17	—
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$448.3	$258.83	+$104.48	50% 88-89 (177)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$224.27	$243.75	+$19.49	— 2-1 (3)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$25.75	$37.5	+$11.75	55% 367-301 (668)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 93.4¢	$107.83	$32.7	-$0.13	47% 738-817 (1555)
GE getbippedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$15	$28.13	+$13.13	47% 15-17 (32)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$11,263.4

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$16.64

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,985.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$89.17

Record

—

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$448.3

Value

$258.83

PnL

+$104.48

Record

50%

88-89 (177)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$224.27

Value

$243.75

PnL

+$19.49

Record

—

2-1 (3)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.75

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$11.75

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$107.83

Value

$32.7

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

getbippedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$28.13

PnL

+$13.13

Record

47%

15-17 (32)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.