Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 November 9-15?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 16

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

-$169.78

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 96.2¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares22,384

Combined PnL-$256.77

Yes2 traders

Total Value$345.86

Total Shares6,185

Combined PnL+$86.99

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 95.5¢	$20.1K	$19.1K	-$172.41	69% 182-81 (263)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.1K	$1.5K	-$87.15	—
GE getbipped	Noavg 93.7¢	$340.61	$343.88	+$3.27	47% 21-24 (45)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$198.23	$200.59	+$2.36	25% 7-21 (28)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 3¢	$381.1	$145.27	+$84.63	65% 24-13 (37)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 95.7¢	$125.32	$126.02	+$0.7	90% 19-2 (21)
Facaie<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$74.01	$72.62	-$1.39	93% 75-6 (81)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 95.2¢	$207.98	$49.2	+$0.2	48% 1360-1458 (2818)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$20,097.83

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$172.41

Record

69%

182-81 (263)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$4,142.19

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$87.15

Record

—

getbipped

Invested

$340.61

Value

$343.88

PnL

+$3.27

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

PhongLeXBTCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.23

Value

$200.59

PnL

+$2.36

Record

25%

7-21 (28)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$381.1

Value

$145.27

PnL

+$84.63

Record

65%

24-13 (37)

nonkenny90

Invested

$125.32

Value

$126.02

PnL

+$0.7

Record

90%

19-2 (21)

Facaie<$100

Invested

$74.01

Value

$72.62

PnL

-$1.39

Record

93%

75-6 (81)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$207.98

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

1360-1458 (2818)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.