Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 89¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$5.5K
-$44.78
90.2¢ → 89¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.1K | $3.8K | -$116.84 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 88¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$30.84 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $175.5 | $195 | +$19.5 | 62% 795-491 (1286) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $119.97 | $113.3 | +$17.33 | 54% 786-659 (1445) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $39.51 | $43.9 | +$4.39 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$4,105.94
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$116.84
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$1,356.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$30.84
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$175.5
Value
$195
PnL
+$19.5
Record
62%
795-491 (1286)
Invested
$119.97
Value
$113.3
PnL
+$17.33
Record
54%
786-659 (1445)
Invested
$39.51
Value
$43.9
PnL
+$4.39
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.