Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 November 9-15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$21.35

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares11,666

Combined PnL+$50.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$134.66

Total Shares9,764

Combined PnL-$29.29

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98.4¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$21.04	69% 174-79 (253)
GE getbipped	Noavg 98¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$31.5	45% 20-24 (44)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 99¢	$572.49	$570.78	-$1.71	—
Facaie	Noavg 98.9¢	$140.45	$140.23	-$0.22	92% 68-6 (74)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$126.05	$91.44	-$34.62	27% 7-19 (26)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$36.04	$40.75	+$4.71	65% 24-13 (37)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$49.6	$24.69	+$0.03	48% 1344-1445 (2789)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.86	$2.47	+$0.61	45% 2420-2899 (5319)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$6,615.09

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$21.04

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

getbipped

Invested

$4,116.49

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$31.5

Record

45%

20-24 (44)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$572.49

Value

$570.78

PnL

-$1.71

Record

—

Facaie

Invested

$140.45

Value

$140.23

PnL

-$0.22

Record

92%

68-6 (74)

PhongLeXBTCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.05

Value

$91.44

PnL

-$34.62

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.04

Value

$40.75

PnL

+$4.71

Record

65%

24-13 (37)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$24.69

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

1344-1445 (2789)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0.61

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.