Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 1

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$49.26

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,253

Combined PnL+$25.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$72.75

Total Shares970

Combined PnL+$24.2

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbipped	Noavg 91.1¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$47.02	50% 220-217 (437)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 94.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$45.51	65% 2644-1393 (4037)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 92¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$9.05	55% 803-666 (1469)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 91¢	$910	$930	+$15	77% 295-88 (383)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$48.25	$72.38	+$24.13	62% 816-507 (1323)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$50	$46.25	-$0.5	48% 9289-10165 (19454)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.38	+$0.08	43% 240-316 (556)

getbipped

Invested

$3,102.68

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$47.02

Record

50%

220-217 (437)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$1,915.29

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$45.51

Record

65%

2644-1393 (4037)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$1,840

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$9.05

Record

55%

803-666 (1469)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$910

Value

$930

PnL

+$15

Record

77%

295-88 (383)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.25

Value

$72.38

PnL

+$24.13

Record

62%

816-507 (1323)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

9289-10165 (19454)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

43%

240-316 (556)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.