Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$12.4K
$43.78
95.3¢ → 95.1¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $8.8K | $8.4K | +$35.82 | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$61.42 | 65% 2633-1390 (4023) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $70.99 | $111.07 | +$40.08 | 62% 815-506 (1321) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $59.41 | $88.71 | +$29.3 | 50% 220-217 (437) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $4.75 | $4.75 | +$0 | 46% 6086-7026 (13112) |
Invested
$8,805
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$35.82
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$3,928.62
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$61.42
Record
65%
2633-1390 (4023)
Invested
$70.99
Value
$111.07
PnL
+$40.08
Record
62%
815-506 (1321)
Invested
$59.41
Value
$88.71
PnL
+$29.3
Record
50%
220-217 (437)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6086-7026 (13112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.