Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in November?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 85¢ · $28K held · ends Dec 1

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$28.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 85.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$28.0K

Total Shares32,162

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$344.72

Total Shares2,563

Combined PnL+$269.77

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbipped	Noavg 92.9¢	$13.4K	$12.6K	-$807.03	49% 25-26 (51)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 90.4¢	$8.3K	$7.9K	-$266.21	68% 208-98 (306)
HQ hqb.prediction	Noavg 89.8¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$199.18	5% 2-40 (42)
LO lovedudley	Noavg 95.3¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$240	20% 30-119 (149)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$141	$344.05	+$267.4	70% 32-14 (46)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 92.9¢	$146.96	$136.91	-$10.05	64% 14-8 (22)
PippiTrader	Noavg 90.3¢	$135.47	$130.95	-$4.52	47% 46-52 (98)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$93.44	$59.35	-$0.12	50% 1618-1648 (3266)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$15	$0.67	+$2.36	54% 61-53 (114)

getbipped

Invested

$13,367.55

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$807.03

Record

49%

25-26 (51)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,325.4

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$266.21

Record

68%

208-98 (306)

hqb.prediction

Invested

$4,999.92

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$199.18

Record

2-40 (42)

lovedudley

Invested

$2,859

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$240

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$141

Value

$344.05

PnL

+$267.4

Record

70%

32-14 (46)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$146.96

Value

$136.91

PnL

-$10.05

Record

64%

14-8 (22)

PippiTrader

Invested

$135.47

Value

$130.95

PnL

-$4.52

Record

47%

46-52 (98)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$93.44

Value

$59.35

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

1618-1648 (3266)

CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$2.36

Record

54%

61-53 (114)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.3%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.