Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Estonia win the UEFA EURO 2028?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2 held · ends Jul 24, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jul 24, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

Combined PnL

-$5.09

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2

Total Shares802

Combined PnL-$5.09

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

149h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.21	$0.51	+$0.31	59% 1054-735 (1789)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.31	$0.31	+$0.31	55% 25563-21209 (46772)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.08	$0.25	-$1.28	50% 21595-21452 (43047)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.53	$0.25	-$1.28	45% 16725-20380 (37105)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.22	-$1.01	49% 24111-24663 (48774)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$1.02	$0.17	-$0.85	55% 42163-34090 (76253)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.31	$0.15	-$0.71	42% 15342-20806 (36148)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yes	$0.09	$0.09	-$0.47	50% 19532-19373 (38905)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.15	$0.05	-$0.1	26% 598-1691 (2289)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

1054-735 (1789)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

25563-21209 (46772)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.28

Record

50%

21595-21452 (43047)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.28

Record

45%

16725-20380 (37105)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.01

Record

49%

24111-24663 (48774)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.85

Record

55%

42163-34090 (76253)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.71

Record

42%

15342-20806 (36148)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

19532-19373 (38905)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

26%

598-1691 (2289)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

149h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.