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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
$1.53
89.9¢ → 91.8¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
293h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | Noavg 92¢ | $423.23 | $422.74 | -$0.49 | 66% 557-287 (844) |
 allenzzz | Noavg 89.8¢ | $323.05 | $332.59 | +$9.54 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 87.1¢ | $257.37 | $278.89 | +$16.32 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $153.3 | $265.21 | -$32.96 | 53% 1107-988 (2095) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.14 | $10.26 | +$9.12 | 73% 8245-3108 (11353) |
Invested
$423.23
Value
$422.74
PnL
-$0.49
Record
66%
557-287 (844)
allenzzzInvested
$323.05
Value
$332.59
PnL
+$9.54
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$257.37
Value
$278.89
PnL
+$16.32
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Invested
$153.3
Value
$265.21
PnL
-$32.96
Record
53%
1107-988 (2095)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$9.12
Record
73%
8245-3108 (11353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.