Will England win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 82¢ · $608 held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$607.83

Combined PnL

$120.36

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$434.36

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$104.2

Yes3 traders

Total Value$172.86

Total Shares934

Combined PnL+$16.17

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTraveler	Noavg 64¢	$330.16	$434.36	+$104.2	41% 2128-3058 (5186)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$155.54	$169.27	+$13.72	61% 864-548 (1412)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.89	$2.64	+$1.76	32% 3312-7188 (10500)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.27	$0.96	+$0.69	28% 3025-7837 (10862)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$330.16

Value

$434.36

PnL

+$104.2

Record

41%

2128-3058 (5186)

P1kasoCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.54

Value

$169.27

PnL

+$13.72

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$1.76

Record

32%

3312-7188 (10500)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.69

Record

28%

3025-7837 (10862)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.