Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Eminem be the second most streamed artist for 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.52

Combined PnL

-$48.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.52

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL-$48.83

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

126h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$16.9	$0.19	-$19.32	45% 16737-20424 (37161)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$12.13	$0.13	-$11.99	16% 1419-7677 (9096)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.14	$0.1	-$9.03	32% 8615-18480 (27095)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.36	$0.04	-$3.33	23% 2598-8905 (11503)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.73	$0.03	-$2.7	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.1	$0.01	-$1.09	22% 1869-6674 (8543)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.01	-$0.71	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.1	$0.01	-$0.18	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.45	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.02	14% 9536-61063 (70599)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.9

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$19.32

Record

45%

16737-20424 (37161)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$11.99

Record

16%

1419-7677 (9096)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.14

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$9.03

Record

32%

8615-18480 (27095)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.33

Record

23%

2598-8905 (11503)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.7

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.09

Record

22%

1869-6674 (8543)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

14%

9536-61063 (70599)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

126h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.