Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Emiliano García-Page be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $163 held · ends Mar 31, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$162.71
-$397.49
1.7¢ → 0.5¢
-71% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $344.76 | $100.22 | -$244.54 | 45% 2761-3309 (6070) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $113.71 | $32.98 | -$80.73 | 48% 3433-3718 (7151) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $68.36 | $19.83 | -$48.53 | 45% 1851-2281 (4132) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $16.03 | $4.66 | -$11.38 | 32% 307-667 (974) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $8.09 | $2.35 | -$5.75 | 28% 197-497 (694) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $7.86 | $2.28 | -$5.58 | 57% 13416-10256 (23672) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.38 | $0.4 | -$0.98 | 31% 277-626 (903) |
Invested
$344.76
Value
$100.22
PnL
-$244.54
Record
45%
2761-3309 (6070)
Invested
$113.71
Value
$32.98
PnL
-$80.73
Record
48%
3433-3718 (7151)
Invested
$68.36
Value
$19.83
PnL
-$48.53
Record
45%
1851-2281 (4132)
Invested
$16.03
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$11.38
Record
32%
307-667 (974)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$5.75
Record
28%
197-497 (694)
Invested
$7.86
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$5.58
Record
57%
13416-10256 (23672)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0.98
Record
31%
277-626 (903)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.