Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on November 30?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 95¢ · $120 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$120.41
$2.7
92.5¢ → 95¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.6 | $38 | +$0.4 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $30.5 | $32.3 | +$1.8 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $19 | +$0.4 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $14.68 | $14.84 | +$0.16 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $10.69 | $10.8 | +$0.11 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.75 | +$0.3 | 91% 30-3 (33) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.19 | $0.72 | -$0.47 | — 8-8 (16) |
Invested
$37.6
Value
$38
PnL
+$0.4
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$30.5
Value
$32.3
PnL
+$1.8
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.4
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.68
Value
$14.84
PnL
+$0.16
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.69
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.3
Record
91%
30-3 (33)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$0.47
Record
—
8-8 (16)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.