Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on November 30?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $138 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$138.04
-$1.87
91.2¢ → 90¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $36.4 | $36 | -$0.4 | 53% 5376-4855 (10231) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $31.28 | $30.6 | -$0.68 | 29% 2510-6165 (8675) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $27.3 | $27 | -$0.3 | 36% 2999-5341 (8340) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $18 | -$0.2 | 25% 821-2479 (3300) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.19 | $17.99 | -$0.2 | 50% 4534-4452 (8986) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $8.54 | $8.45 | -$0.09 | 7% 26-369 (395) |
Invested
$36.4
Value
$36
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
5376-4855 (10231)
Invested
$31.28
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$0.68
Record
29%
2510-6165 (8675)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$27.3
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.3
Record
36%
2999-5341 (8340)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.2
Record
25%
821-2479 (3300)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.19
Value
$17.99
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
4534-4452 (8986)
Invested
$8.54
Value
$8.45
PnL
-$0.09
Record
7%
26-369 (395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.