Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 96¢ · $846 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$845.78
$403.67
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
103h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 94.9¢ | $490.26 | $493.44 | +$3.18 | 65% 665-355 (1020) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $51.86 | $319.13 | +$182.86 | 57% 800-615 (1415) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $3.86 | $17.21 | +$13.34 | 57% 2468-1835 (4303) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $43.04 | $14.72 | +$204.66 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 HorribleWorkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $1.65 | $1.28 | -$0.37 | 60% 458-305 (763) |
AllByMyseIfInvested
$490.26
Value
$493.44
PnL
+$3.18
Record
65%
665-355 (1020)
paddaaCTRInvested
$51.86
Value
$319.13
PnL
+$182.86
Record
57%
800-615 (1415)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$3.86
Value
$17.21
PnL
+$13.34
Record
57%
2468-1835 (4303)
Invested
$43.04
Value
$14.72
PnL
+$204.66
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
HorribleWorkCTR<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$0.37
Record
60%
458-305 (763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.