Will Elazar Stern be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $230 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$229.91
$1.01
99.2¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $155.56 | $155.44 | -$0.12 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.63 | $22.6 | -$0.03 | 27% 933-2514 (3447) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $19.93 | +$1.13 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.97 | $13.95 | -$0.02 | 79% 348-95 (443) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.95 | $10.01 | +$0.07 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $7.98 | $7.97 | -$0.01 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
Invested
$155.56
Value
$155.44
PnL
-$0.12
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
Invested
$22.63
Value
$22.6
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
933-2514 (3447)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$19.93
PnL
+$1.13
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$13.95
PnL
-$0.02
Record
79%
348-95 (443)
balthazar<$100Invested
$9.95
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.