Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $25 held · ends Oct 24, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 24, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$25.11

Combined PnL

-$261.79

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 0.1¢

-91% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$25.11

Total Shares25,110

Combined PnL-$261.79

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoffeeDespiserCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$135.7	$15	-$120.71	50% 870-859 (1729)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$55.8	$3.57	-$52.22	73% 11083-4091 (15174)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$53.66	$3.49	-$50.16	49% 7448-7778 (15226)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$26.17	$1.68	-$24.5	7% 14-192 (206)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$5.51	$0.55	-$4.96	38% 2935-4691 (7626)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.9	$0.3	-$2.6	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.15	$0.2	-$1.96	64% 5396-3050 (8446)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.06	$0.2	-$2.87	42% 1898-2620 (4518)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.87	$0.12	-$1.76	54% 113-96 (209)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.07	$0	-$0.06	54% 6080-5238 (11318)

CoffeeDespiserCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.7

Value

$15

PnL

-$120.71

Record

50%

870-859 (1729)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.8

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$52.22

Record

73%

11083-4091 (15174)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.66

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$50.16

Record

49%

7448-7778 (15226)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.17

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$24.5

Record

14-192 (206)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.51

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$4.96

Record

38%

2935-4691 (7626)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$2.6

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.96

Record

64%

5396-3050 (8446)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$2.87

Record

42%

1898-2620 (4518)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.76

Record

54%

113-96 (209)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

6080-5238 (11318)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8644.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

8745.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.