Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Édouard Philippe win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 2.7¢ · $116 held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$116.41
$9.33
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
63h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $80 | $77.6 | +$0.4 | 53% 23170-20401 (43571) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $14.1 | $15.81 | +$1.71 | 53% 29752-26614 (56366) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $10.01 | $11.23 | +$1.21 | 73% 12972-4916 (17888) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $167.09 | $5.01 | +$4.47 | 39% 3178-4986 (8164) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $3.53 | $4.11 | +$0.58 | 36% 2034-3660 (5694) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.01 | $1.98 | +$0.97 | 18% 4430-20777 (25207) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.56 | $0.53 | -$0.03 | 27% 549-1481 (2030) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.08 | $0.08 | +$0 | 61% 15009-9460 (24469) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.04 | $0.06 | +$0.02 | 42% 7144-9973 (17117) |
Invested
$80
Value
$77.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
23170-20401 (43571)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$14.1
Value
$15.81
PnL
+$1.71
Record
53%
29752-26614 (56366)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$11.23
PnL
+$1.21
Record
73%
12972-4916 (17888)
Invested
$167.09
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$4.47
Record
39%
3178-4986 (8164)
Invested
$3.53
Value
$4.11
PnL
+$0.58
Record
36%
2034-3660 (5694)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.97
Record
18%
4430-20777 (25207)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
549-1481 (2030)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
15009-9460 (24469)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.02
Record
42%
7144-9973 (17117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.