Will Duro win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 29

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$244.64

Combined PnL

-$0.61

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$240.15

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$1.88

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.48

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$1.27

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 98.9¢	$121.06	$77.62	-$0.1	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$73.71	$72.9	-$0.81	27% 3479-9270 (12749)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$36.78	$36.39	-$0.39	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$30.12	$29.8	-$0.32	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.65	$9.55	-$0.1	70% 16761-7351 (24112)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9	$8.9	-$0.1	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5.04	$4.99	-$0.05	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.7	$3.23	+$0.51	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.88	$0.97	+$0.79	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.31	$0.28	-$0.03	29% 3578-8699 (12277)

Lucerys

Invested

$121.06

Value

$77.62

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$73.71

Value

$72.9

PnL

-$0.81

Record

27%

3479-9270 (12749)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$36.78

Value

$36.39

PnL

-$0.39

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$30.12

Value

$29.8

PnL

-$0.32

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

70%

16761-7351 (24112)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.51

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.79

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

29%

3578-8699 (12277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.