Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 95¢ · $285 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$285.17

Combined PnL

-$3.59

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$192.73

Total Shares203

Combined PnL+$1.67

Yes4 traders

Total Value$92.44

Total Shares1,681

Combined PnL-$5.26

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

786h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 93.5¢	$191.06	$192.73	+$1.67	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$103.19	$83.71	-$19.48	45% 3015-3705 (6720)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.51	$3.82	+$2.31	22% 44-157 (201)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.13	$2.71	+$1.64	32% 3291-7153 (10444)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$99.56	$2.2	+$10.27	37% 3305-5687 (8992)

cigarettes

Invested

$191.06

Value

$192.73

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.19

Value

$83.71

PnL

-$19.48

Record

45%

3015-3705 (6720)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$2.31

Record

22%

44-157 (201)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$1.64

Record

32%

3291-7153 (10444)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.56

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$10.27

Record

37%

3305-5687 (8992)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

786h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.