Will Dune: Messiah have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.65

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 98.3¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,678

Combined PnL-$2.88

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.73

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$2.24

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.3¢	$372.4	$369.91	-$2.49	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.8¢	$332.93	$332.38	-$0.55	35% 2910-5328 (8238)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.7¢	$254.58	$254.4	-$0.19	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
GO god83743894	Noavg 98.4¢	$225.39	$225.76	+$0.37	5% 16-322 (338)
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$129.22	$128.09	-$1.13	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
AL alex20011	Noavg 97.8¢	$120.01	$120.97	+$0.96	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 98.6¢	$106.5	$106.5	+$0	— 1-10 (11)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98¢	$50.68	$50.97	+$0.28	38% 1194-1980 (3174)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.58	-$0.24	39% 1397-2152 (3549)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$29.46	$29.58	+$0.12	28% 827-2133 (2960)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$6.26	$6.24	-$0.02	79% 177-47 (224)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.49	$3.73	+$2.24	17% 12-60 (72)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$372.4

Value

$369.91

PnL

-$2.49

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

Lucerys

Invested

$332.93

Value

$332.38

PnL

-$0.55

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

cigarettes

Invested

$254.58

Value

$254.4

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

god83743894

Invested

$225.39

Value

$225.76

PnL

+$0.37

Record

16-322 (338)

balthazar

Invested

$129.22

Value

$128.09

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

alex20011

Invested

$120.01

Value

$120.97

PnL

+$0.96

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$106.5

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-10 (11)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$50.68

Value

$50.97

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

1194-1980 (3174)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

1397-2152 (3549)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.46

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.12

Record

28%

827-2133 (2960)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$0.02

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$2.24

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.