Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 13¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$170.66

Smart Money Entry

14.8¢ → 13.3¢

-10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$979.39

Total Shares8,162

Combined PnL-$173.22

No3 traders

Total Value$323.2

Total Shares376

Combined PnL+$2.56

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$1.2K	$930	-$210.74	46% 49-57 (106)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 87.2¢	$245.83	$246.34	+$0.5	53% 1101-982 (2083)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 84.9¢	$209.9	$75.82	+$2	53% 6327-5543 (11870)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$11.88	$49.39	+$37.51	36% 2027-3623 (5650)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 82¢	$0.98	$1.04	+$0.06	53% 3679-3199 (6878)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,195

Value

$930

PnL

-$210.74

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$245.83

Value

$246.34

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

1101-982 (2083)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$209.9

Value

$75.82

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

6327-5543 (11870)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.88

Value

$49.39

PnL

+$37.51

Record

36%

2027-3623 (5650)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

3679-3199 (6878)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.9%

13.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$570.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

670.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.