Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Drew Rasmussen win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
Resolved No. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
27
Yes 100%
$0
$5.57
Smart Money Signal
16 of 27 top traders (59%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $6 | — | -$5.71 | 48% 2013-2143 (4156) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $5.36 | — | -$5.36 | 50% 2630-2578 (5208) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 28% 797-2091 (2888) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.43 | — | -$1.43 | 47% 4175-4797 (8972) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$1.15 | 45% 9808-11964 (21772) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.39 | — | -$0.39 | 38% 2966-4743 (7709) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.38 | 34% 2142-4117 (6259) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.01 | 34% 7780-14990 (22770) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.01 | 28% 3048-7956 (11004) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.03 | — 6-1 (7) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 39% 7026-11132 (18158) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 3029-3730 (6759) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 6093-11041 (17134) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 18915-12738 (31653) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 23834-18418 (42252) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $69.93 | — | +$23.02 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 11465-12267 (23732) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 46% 10314-12253 (22567) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 2182-2362 (4544) |
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.71
Record
48%
2013-2143 (4156)
Invested
$5.36
Value
—
PnL
-$5.36
Record
50%
2630-2578 (5208)
Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
28%
797-2091 (2888)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
Invested
$1.43
Value
—
PnL
-$1.43
Record
47%
4175-4797 (8972)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
45%
9808-11964 (21772)
Invested
$0.39
Value
—
PnL
-$0.39
Record
38%
2966-4743 (7709)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.38
Record
34%
2142-4117 (6259)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
34%
7780-14990 (22770)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
3048-7956 (11004)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.03
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
7026-11132 (18158)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
3029-3730 (6759)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
6093-11041 (17134)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
18915-12738 (31653)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
23834-18418 (42252)
Invested
$69.93
Value
—
PnL
+$23.02
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
11465-12267 (23732)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
10314-12253 (22567)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2182-2362 (4544)