Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 77¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$137.67

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 77¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,898

Combined PnL+$240

No12 traders

Total Value$328.43

Total Shares1,306

Combined PnL-$102.32

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
seal7	Yesavg 66.9¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$112.44	49% 288-302 (590)
twinna	Yesavg 59.9¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$128.2	50% 94-94 (188)
macrosteaks	Yes	$575.22	$575.22	+$0	54% 3256-2723 (5979)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 31.5¢	$121	$95.97	-$25.02	45% 2312-2836 (5148)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR	Noavg 33¢	$100.32	$74.49	-$24.14	17% 221-1047 (1268)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR	Noavg 33¢	$100.32	$56.71	-$23.15	31% 2176-4867 (7043)
GG GGLPL<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$44.72	$44.72	-$0.64	50% 713-716 (1429)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 33.3¢	$51.81	$38.95	-$12.86	72% 11988-4776 (16764)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$69.02	$38.75	-$17.31	25% 180-534 (714)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$69.32	$11.42	+$0.75	50% 1694-1678 (3372)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.88	$2.77	-$0.11	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.88	$2.77	-$0.11	37% 633-1096 (1729)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 27.3¢	$2.22	$2.04	-$0.18	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.11	$2.03	-$0.08	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$1.34	$1.29	-$0.05	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.25	-$0.05	47% 1566-1776 (3342)

seal7

Yes

Invested

$2,388.96

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$112.44

Record

49%

288-302 (590)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$1,492.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$128.2

Record

50%

94-94 (188)

macrosteaks

Yes

Invested

$575.22

Value

$575.22

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3256-2723 (5979)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$121

Value

$95.97

PnL

-$25.02

Record

45%

2312-2836 (5148)

VerilyWinninglyCTR

Invested

$100.32

Value

$74.49

PnL

-$24.14

Record

17%

221-1047 (1268)

SpringlyFawlCTR

Invested

$100.32

Value

$56.71

PnL

-$23.15

Record

31%

2176-4867 (7043)

GGLPL<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.72

Value

$44.72

PnL

-$0.64

Record

50%

713-716 (1429)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$51.81

Value

$38.95

PnL

-$12.86

Record

72%

11988-4776 (16764)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$69.02

Value

$38.75

PnL

-$17.31

Record

25%

180-534 (714)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$69.32

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

1694-1678 (3372)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$0.11

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$0.11

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

1566-1776 (3342)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.