Will Don Toliver be featured on GTA VI: The Album?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 26

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Thu, Nov 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$338.19

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 88¢

+25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$509.13

Total Shares2,121

Combined PnL+$289.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$503.68

Total Shares580

Combined PnL+$48.55

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 16.6¢	$205.86	$488.98	+$283.11	53% 1134-1022 (2156)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 71.7¢	$512.74	$458.4	+$42.94	50% 1654-1640 (3294)
PE peepeepooppoopARB<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$220.58	$158.42	-$62.16	52% 2037-1863 (3900)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80¢	$75.83	$80.57	+$4.74
└ No leg	Noavg 27.9¢	$144.75	$77.85	-$66.9
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Yesavg 58.1¢	$34.6	$45.28	+$5.61	62% 2185-1326 (3511)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 26.2¢	$13.63	$20.16	+$6.53	18% 3794-17190 (20984)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$205.86

Value

$488.98

PnL

+$283.11

Record

53%

1134-1022 (2156)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$512.74

Value

$458.4

PnL

+$42.94

Record

50%

1654-1640 (3294)

peepeepooppoopARB<$100

Invested

$220.58

Value

$158.42

PnL

-$62.16

Record

52%

2037-1863 (3900)

Both legs:

Invested

$34.6

Value

$45.28

PnL

+$5.61

Record

62%

2185-1326 (3511)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$13.63

Value

$20.16

PnL

+$6.53

Record

18%

3794-17190 (20984)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.