Will Don Mattingly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $575 held · ends Dec 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$575.14
-$2.33
99.6¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
170h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $403.6 | $404.89 | +$1.29 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.16 | $99.1 | -$0.05 | 28% 2400-6141 (8541) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $40.22 | $40.22 | +$0 | 35% 2848-5314 (8162) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.94 | +$0.03 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.58 | $0.99 | -$3.59 | 48% 63-69 (132) |
Invested
$403.6
Value
$404.89
PnL
+$1.29
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
Invested
$99.16
Value
$99.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
2400-6141 (8541)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$40.22
Value
$40.22
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2848-5314 (8162)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$4.58
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$3.59
Record
48%
63-69 (132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.