Will DK be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $678 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$677.78

Combined PnL

-$0.01

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$677.78

Total Shares679

Combined PnL-$0.01

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

203h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 99.9¢	$169.75	$169.75	+$0	84% 43-8 (51)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$119.76	$119.82	+$0.06	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.85	-$0.05	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.92	$80.88	-$0.04	80% 48-12 (60)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$63.85	$63.88	+$0.03	26% 860-2483 (3343)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.93	-$0.02	24% 77-243 (320)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$43.73	$43.75	+$0.02	17% 76-374 (450)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	27% 936-2514 (3450)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.97	+$0.01	51% 4654-4528 (9182)

korda77

Invested

$169.75

Value

$169.75

PnL

+$0

Record

84%

43-8 (51)

cigarettes

Invested

$119.76

Value

$119.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

merod<$100

Invested

$80.92

Value

$80.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$63.85

Value

$63.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$43.73

Value

$43.75

PnL

+$0.02

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

203h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.