Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Djordje Mihailovic win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 22

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.9

Combined PnL

-$29.43

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.9

Total Shares1,795

Combined PnL-$29.43

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$12.2	$0.36	-$11.84	60% 7177-4733 (11910)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$7.16	$0.21	-$6.96	61% 13846-8705 (22551)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$6.9	$0.2	-$6.7	92% 8583-746 (9329)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.42	$0.04	-$1.38	55% 5873-4760 (10633)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.2	$0.04	-$1.16	55% 6022-5005 (11027)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.75	$0.02	-$0.72	44% 4026-5205 (9231)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.02	-$0.66	36% 635-1124 (1759)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.2

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$11.84

Record

60%

7177-4733 (11910)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.16

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$6.96

Record

61%

13846-8705 (22551)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.9

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$6.7

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.38

Record

55%

5873-4760 (10633)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.16

Record

55%

6022-5005 (11027)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.72

Record

44%

4026-5205 (9231)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.66

Record

36%

635-1124 (1759)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.