Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 96¢ · $397 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$396.6

Combined PnL

-$151.14

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 95.8¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$271

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$5.16

Yes6 traders

Total Value$125.59

Total Shares2,243

Combined PnL-$156.3

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

578h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 93.9¢	$220.65	$221.84	+$1.19	43% 8735-11393 (20128)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 10.5¢	$199.35	$106.31	-$116.83	48% 1351-1487 (2838)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$45.19	$49.16	+$3.97	19% 2852-12176 (15028)
BigMackyGCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$48.29	$16.34	-$36.04	20% 115-474 (589)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$3.5	$1.74	-$1.76	36% 5883-10617 (16500)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$5.46	$0.58	-$0.4	77% 12683-3869 (16552)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$1.64	$0.54	-$1.1	53% 8527-7603 (16130)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.25	$0.08	-$0.17	51% 152-146 (298)

mildwindow27

Invested

$220.65

Value

$221.84

PnL

+$1.19

Record

43%

8735-11393 (20128)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$199.35

Value

$106.31

PnL

-$116.83

Record

48%

1351-1487 (2838)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$45.19

Value

$49.16

PnL

+$3.97

Record

19%

2852-12176 (15028)

BigMackyGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.29

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$36.04

Record

20%

115-474 (589)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$1.76

Record

36%

5883-10617 (16500)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.46

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.4

Record

77%

12683-3869 (16552)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

8527-7603 (16130)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

152-146 (298)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

578h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.