Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$0.27

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,056

Combined PnL-$0.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.65

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$0.09

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.7¢	$555.43	$554.75	-$0.68	31% 2735-6214 (8949)
balthazar	Noavg 99.6¢	$199.2	$199.1	-$0.1	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.3¢	$196.6	$197.11	+$0.51	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.61	$59.73	+$0.12	17% 66-330 (396)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.87	-$0.01	26% 860-2483 (3343)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.96	$10.95	-$0.01	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.02	$1.11	+$0.09	24% 82-266 (348)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.72	$0.54	-$0.18	12% 22-156 (178)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$555.43

Value

$554.75

PnL

-$0.68

Record

31%

2735-6214 (8949)

balthazar

Invested

$199.2

Value

$199.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

cigarettes

Invested

$196.6

Value

$197.11

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$59.61

Value

$59.73

PnL

+$0.12

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.09

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.18

Record

12%

22-156 (178)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.