Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $992 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$992.5

Combined PnL

-$0.88

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$991.28

Total Shares995

Combined PnL-$0.34

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$0.53

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.7¢	$555.49	$555.03	-$0.46	31% 2735-6214 (8949)
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$199.4	$199.2	-$0.2	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.4¢	$106.39	$106.57	+$0.18	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$59.67	$59.76	+$0.09	40% 1457-2158 (3615)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.79	$29.88	+$0.09	24% 77-243 (320)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.88	-$0.03	17% 76-374 (450)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.97	$10.96	-$0.01	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.02	$0.68	-$0.34	24% 82-266 (348)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.74	$0.54	-$0.19	12% 22-156 (178)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$555.49

Value

$555.03

PnL

-$0.46

Record

31%

2735-6214 (8949)

balthazar

Invested

$199.4

Value

$199.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

cigarettes

Invested

$106.39

Value

$106.57

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$59.67

Value

$59.76

PnL

+$0.09

Record

40%

1457-2158 (3615)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.09

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.03

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$10.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.34

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.19

Record

12%

22-156 (178)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.