Will Discord’s market cap be $20B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.1K
-$0.74
99.2¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
206h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.5¢ | $554.65 | $551.13 | -$3.52 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.4¢ | $295.2 | $296.7 | +$1.5 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $199.2 | $197.8 | -$1.4 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.52 | $29.67 | +$0.15 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $10.96 | $10.88 | -$0.08 | 53% 1609-1415 (3024) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.08 | $3.96 | +$2.88 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.02 | $0.75 | -$0.27 | 24% 82-266 (348) |
Invested
$554.65
Value
$551.13
PnL
-$3.52
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$295.2
Value
$296.7
PnL
+$1.5
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
balthazarInvested
$199.2
Value
$197.8
PnL
-$1.4
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$29.67
PnL
+$0.15
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
1609-1415 (3024)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$3.96
PnL
+$2.88
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$0.27
Record
24%
82-266 (348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.