Will Discord’s market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.34

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 99.1¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,188

Combined PnL-$7.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.03

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$0.57

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.6¢	$555.28	$551.97	-$3.32	28% 2422-6146 (8568)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.3¢	$297.94	$295.95	-$1.99	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
balthazar	Noavg 99.6¢	$199.12	$197.69	-$1.43	50% 4487-4433 (8920)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.61	$59.43	-$0.18	26% 888-2504 (3392)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.6	-$0.22	4% 15-322 (337)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.79	$29.1	-$0.69	25% 806-2476 (3282)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.96	$10.87	-$0.08	53% 1595-1413 (3008)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.46	$1.03	+$0.57	16% 10-52 (62)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$555.28

Value

$551.97

PnL

-$3.32

Record

28%

2422-6146 (8568)

cigarettes

Invested

$297.94

Value

$295.95

PnL

-$1.99

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

balthazar

Invested

$199.12

Value

$197.69

PnL

-$1.43

Record

50%

4487-4433 (8920)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$59.61

Value

$59.43

PnL

-$0.18

Record

26%

888-2504 (3392)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.6

PnL

-$0.22

Record

15-322 (337)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0.69

Record

25%

806-2476 (3282)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.87

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

1595-1413 (3008)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.57

Record

16%

10-52 (62)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.