Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$5.38
-$239.12
4.5¢ → 0.1¢
-98% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $94.27 | $2.07 | -$92.2 | 50% 1220-1232 (2452) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $51.34 | $1.13 | -$50.21 | 79% 10607-2754 (13361) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $44.66 | $0.98 | -$43.67 | 63% 12940-7724 (20664) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $29.77 | $0.66 | -$29.12 | 43% 2778-3616 (6394) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $16.82 | $0.37 | -$16.45 | 60% 7177-4741 (11918) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $6.74 | $0.15 | -$6.59 | 44% 4029-5217 (9246) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.91 | $0.02 | -$0.89 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
Invested
$94.27
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$92.2
Record
50%
1220-1232 (2452)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$51.34
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$50.21
Record
79%
10607-2754 (13361)
Invested
$44.66
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$43.67
Record
63%
12940-7724 (20664)
Invested
$29.77
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$29.12
Record
43%
2778-3616 (6394)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$16.45
Record
60%
7177-4741 (11918)
Invested
$6.74
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$6.59
Record
44%
4029-5217 (9246)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.89
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.