Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Dinamo Zagreb finish first in UEL league phase?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $126 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$125.61

Combined PnL

-$30.11

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$125.61

Total Shares1,318

Combined PnL-$30.11

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$93.56	$93.56	-$15.83	58% 15883-11562 (27445)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$9.76	-$1.65	27% 2564-7001 (9565)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.29	$6.88	-$1.17	17% 1381-6733 (8114)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$6.28	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$6.19	-$1.05	49% 6610-6994 (13604)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$2.75	-$0.47	17% 406-2050 (2456)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.47	$0.18	-$8.29	50% 926-911 (1837)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 589-1509 (2098)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.56

Value

$93.56

PnL

-$15.83

Record

58%

15883-11562 (27445)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$1.65

Record

27%

2564-7001 (9565)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$1.17

Record

17%

1381-6733 (8114)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$6.19

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6610-6994 (13604)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

406-2050 (2456)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.47

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

926-911 (1837)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

589-1509 (2098)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.