Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Diego Rossi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.86
-$28.05
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $12.2 | $0.36 | -$11.84 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $7.16 | $0.21 | -$6.96 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $6.9 | $0.2 | -$6.7 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.2 | $0.04 | -$1.16 | 55% 6018-4905 (10923) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.75 | $0.02 | -$0.72 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.68 | $0.02 | -$0.66 | 37% 633-1096 (1729) |
Invested
$12.2
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$11.84
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$7.16
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$6.96
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$6.7
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.16
Record
55%
6018-4905 (10923)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.72
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.66
Record
37%
633-1096 (1729)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.