Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Devin Booker win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.45

Combined PnL

-$24.51

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$3.45

Total Shares2,074

Combined PnL-$24.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$1.25	$1.25	-$1.04	— 6-7 (13)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.89	$1.22	-$1.02	55% 42133-34031 (76164)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$0.25	-$3.99	38% 841-1354 (2195)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$0.25	-$3.99	38% 3017-4847 (7864)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$7.14	$0.21	-$6.92	25% 681-2034 (2715)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.17	$0.07	-$2.11	50% 21518-21342 (42860)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.02	$0.06	-$1.96	23% 2589-8836 (11425)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.85	$0.05	-$0.8	26% 592-1671 (2263)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$95	$0.05	-$1.54	32% 8583-18358 (26941)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.2	$0.04	-$1.17	22% 828-2960 (3788)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$1.04

Record

—

6-7 (13)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$1.02

Record

55%

42133-34031 (76164)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$3.99

Record

38%

841-1354 (2195)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$3.99

Record

38%

3017-4847 (7864)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.14

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$6.92

Record

25%

681-2034 (2715)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.11

Record

50%

21518-21342 (42860)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.96

Record

23%

2589-8836 (11425)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.8

Record

26%

592-1671 (2263)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.54

Record

32%

8583-18358 (26941)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.17

Record

22%

828-2960 (3788)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.