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No
NooseracCTRYesYes
balthazar<$100No
Anjun<$100NoNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Derke play for Team Vitality in 2027?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 67%
Total Value
$209
Combined PnL
-$484.34
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$209
Total Shares209
Combined PnL+$0.33
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares769
Combined PnL-$484.68
No — 57%Yes — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $208.67 | $209 | +$0.33 | 99% 12736-184 (12920) |
NooseracCTR | Yesavg 75.7¢ | $477.42 | — | -$477.42 | 52% 5722-5285 (11007) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $7.26 | — | -$7.26 | 66% 556-285 (841) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20749-13168 (33917) |
Anjun<$100 | Noavg 14.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 4892-3954 (8846) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2436-2226 (4662) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 73.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
ZX
zxc368Invested
$208.67
Value
$209
PnL
+$0.33
Record
99%
12736-184 (12920)
NooseracCTRInvested
$477.42
Value
—
PnL
-$477.42
Record
52%
5722-5285 (11007)
0X
0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100Invested
$7.26
Value
—
PnL
-$7.26
Record
66%
556-285 (841)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20749-13168 (33917)
Anjun<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4892-3954 (8846)
ME
merod<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2436-2226 (4662)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1dabc72f...7eb5b0
Slug
will-derke-play-for-team-vitality-in-2027-1788364450495