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mrworldwideCTR<$100Yes
RelaccsedCTR<$100Yes
archaic<$100No
balthazar<$100NoYes
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100NoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Derek Giberson win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0.01
Combined PnL
-$35.8
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares175
Combined PnL-$37.41
No3 traders
Total Value$0.01
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$1.61
Yes — 63%No — 37%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mrworldwideCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $32.97 | — | -$32.97 | 69% 762-349 (1111) |
RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $4.44 | — | -$4.44 | 56% 1178-941 (2119) |
archaic<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $27.8 | $0.01 | +$1.61 | 85% 1851-337 (2188) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20416-12803 (33219) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 53% 3641-3171 (6812) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 15181-11609 (26790) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14458-25898 (40356) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 1060-953 (2013) |
mrworldwideCTR<$100Invested
$32.97
Value
—
PnL
-$32.97
Record
69%
762-349 (1111)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$4.44
Value
—
PnL
-$4.44
Record
56%
1178-941 (2119)
archaic<$100Invested
$27.8
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$1.61
Record
85%
1851-337 (2188)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20416-12803 (33219)
YO
YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3641-3171 (6812)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
15181-11609 (26790)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14458-25898 (40356)
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1060-953 (2013)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x720241bb...eb9c2f
Slug
will-derek-giberson-win-the-2026-oshawa-mayoral-election