Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 84¢ · $465 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$465.15

Combined PnL

-$13.71

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 84¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$414.43

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$13.71

Yes1 trader

Total Value$50.72

Total Shares306

Combined PnL+$0

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 85¢	$113.5	$109.45	-$4.04	39% 1401-2153 (3554)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$98.89	$96.27	-$2.62	35% 2930-5331 (8261)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85¢	$68	$65.6	-$2.4	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$50.72	$50.72	+$0	85% 62-11 (73)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$41.4	$40.5	-$0.9	50% 4511-4443 (8954)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$38.54	$36.9	-$1.64	26% 891-2506 (3397)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 85¢	$29.81	$28.76	-$1.05	— 0-13 (13)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 84¢	$25.2	$24.6	-$0.6	39% 1049-1630 (2679)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85¢	$12.8	$12.35	-$0.45	29% 2470-6157 (8627)

haveagoodday

Invested

$113.5

Value

$109.45

PnL

-$4.04

Record

39%

1401-2153 (3554)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$98.89

Value

$96.27

PnL

-$2.62

Record

35%

2930-5331 (8261)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$68

Value

$65.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.72

Value

$50.72

PnL

+$0

Record

85%

62-11 (73)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

4511-4443 (8954)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$38.54

Value

$36.9

PnL

-$1.64

Record

26%

891-2506 (3397)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.81

Value

$28.76

PnL

-$1.05

Record

—

0-13 (13)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

39%

1049-1630 (2679)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$0.45

Record

29%

2470-6157 (8627)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.