Will DENDELE Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $108 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$108.23

Combined PnL

-$92.21

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$104.24

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$67.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.99

Total Shares1,595

Combined PnL-$24.38

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.88	$59.85	-$0.03	37% 16949-29332 (46281)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.37	$24.39	+$0.01	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.7¢	$155.52	$20	-$67.82	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.51	$2.5	-$11.01	38% 842-1356 (2198)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$12.98	$1.25	-$11.1	26% 601-1695 (2296)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$2.5	$0.24	-$2.26	25% 697-2085 (2782)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$59.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

16949-29332 (46281)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.39

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

cigarettes

Invested

$155.52

Value

$20

PnL

-$67.82

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.51

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$11.01

Record

38%

842-1356 (2198)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$11.1

Record

26%

601-1695 (2296)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$2.26

Record

25%

697-2085 (2782)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.