Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$1.3K
$223.45
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Yes | $798.11 | $798.11 | +$211.17 | 74% 214-76 (290) |
PK pkz | Yesavg 97¢ | $476.97 | $487.92 | +$10.95 | 58% 527-384 (911) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.3¢ | $0.4 | $1.49 | +$1.53 | 51% 314-304 (618) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.4¢ | $0.23 | $0.04 | -$0.2 | 34% 3341-6359 (9700) |
Invested
$798.11
Value
$798.11
PnL
+$211.17
Record
74%
214-76 (290)
Invested
$476.97
Value
$487.92
PnL
+$10.95
Record
58%
527-384 (911)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$1.53
Record
51%
314-304 (618)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.2
Record
34%
3341-6359 (9700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.