Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 7

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$70.02

Combined PnL

$4.7

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$51.53

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$0.66

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.5

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$5.36

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$52.83	$47.55	-$0.71	57% 17612-13142 (30754)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$12.89	$18.19	+$5.3	73% 2872-1062 (3934)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 89¢	$3.93	$3.98	+$0.04	53% 6105-5381 (11486)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$0.25	$0.31	+$0.06	47% 481-545 (1026)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.83

Value

$47.55

PnL

-$0.71

Record

57%

17612-13142 (30754)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.89

Value

$18.19

PnL

+$5.3

Record

73%

2872-1062 (3934)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

6105-5381 (11486)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

481-545 (1026)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.8%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.